Incheon & Gyeonggi: Tight Race Between Democratic Party and People Power Party

The approval gap between the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province has narrowed to a close race within just a month.

According to a party approval survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Energy Economics News on the second week of September, the Democratic Party recorded 41.2% in Incheon and Gyeonggi, while the People Power Party recorded 40.5%. The Democratic Party was ahead by 0.7 percentage points, but this falls within the margin of error.

Compared to the previous week, the Democratic Party dropped 1.4 percentage points while the People Power Party rose 1.9 percentage points.

Just a month ago, the Democratic Party was leading the People Power Party by double digits in Incheon and Gyeonggi.

In the second week of August, the Democratic Party had 47.0% and the People Power Party 31.0%, with a gap of 16.0 percentage points between the two parties.

In the third week of August, the Democratic Party had 46.1% and the People Power Party 36.5%, narrowing the gap to 9.6 percentage points.

In the fourth week of August, the Democratic Party had 47.3% and the People Power Party 36.0%, widening the gap again to 11.3 percentage points.

The gap has narrowed rapidly since early September. In the first week of September, the Democratic Party had 42.6% and the People Power Party 38.6%, narrowing the Democratic Party's lead to 4.0 percentage points.

In this latest survey, the Democratic Party stands at 41.2% and the People Power Party at 40.5%, narrowing the gap to 0.7 percentage points, with the two parties engaged in a tight race within the margin of error.

The shift in approval rates over the past month is pronounced. Compared to the second week of August, the Democratic Party dropped 5.8 percentage points from 47.0% to 41.2%, while the People Power Party rose 9.5 percentage points from 31.0% to 40.5%. Consequently, the gap between the two parties narrowed by 15.3 percentage points from 16.0 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points.

A similar trend emerges when expanding the timeline from early August. In the first week of August, Incheon and Gyeonggi showed the Democratic Party at 47.6% and the People Power Party at 37.1%, with the Democratic Party ahead by 10.5 percentage points.

The gap between the two parties in Incheon and Gyeonggi was 10.5 percentage points in week one of August, 16.0 percentage points in week two, 9.6 percentage points in week three, 11.3 percentage points in week four, 4.0 percentage points in week one of September, and 0.7 percentage points in week two. While there were weekly fluctuations, this is the smallest gap in the past two months.

Nationwide, the People Power Party is ahead of the Democratic Party within the margin of error.

In the second week of September, nationwide party approval showed the People Power Party at 42.1%, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week, while the Democratic Party dropped 5.7 percentage points to 36.1%. The gap between the two parties stands at 6.0 percentage points. The Party for Innovation saw 4.7%, while the Progressive Party and Reform Party each recorded 1.3%.

Realmeter analyzed the Democratic Party's decline in approval as follows: as the ruling party, facing policy uncertainties in real estate and controversy over cabinet reshuffle appointments have added to governance challenges, which coincide with the president's declining approval ratings, resulting in a shift in support among voters in their 20s and progressive supporters.

The second week of September party approval survey was conducted on September 10-11 among 1,003 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 3.6% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The first week of September survey was conducted on September 3-4 among 1,001 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 3.8% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The fourth week of August survey was conducted on August 27-28 among 1,006 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 3.7% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The third week of August survey was conducted on August 20-21 among 1,009 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 2.9% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The second week of August survey was conducted on August 13-14 among 1,004 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 3.5% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The first week of August survey was conducted on August 6-7 among 1,007 eligible voters aged 18 and above nationwide, with a response rate of 3.4% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Each party approval survey was commissioned by Energy Economics News and conducted by Realmeter using automated response (ARS) methods based on random number extraction using a wireless 100% RDD sampling frame.

Detailed information can be found on the Central Election Opinion Poll Deliberation Committee website.