President Lee's Approval Rating Drops Below 30% for First Time … Departing Voters Not Moving to People Power Party
A poll has shown that President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating for state affairs has dropped into the 30% range for the first time since his inauguration. However, public sentiment departing from the president does not appear to be shifting toward the People Power Party.
According to a poll conducted by Chowon C&I from August 22-24 on 2,001 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, President Lee's positive evaluation of state affairs was 38.9%, while negative evaluation stood at 57.9%.
Compared to the previous survey conducted August 8-10, positive evaluation dropped 4.0 percentage points from 42.9%, while negative evaluation rose 3.8 percentage points from 54.1%. The gap between positive and negative evaluations widened from 11.2 percentage points to 19.0 percentage points.
This marks the first time since inauguration that the president's positive evaluation in Chowon C&I's regular surveys has fallen below 40%. In recent surveys, approval ratings have declined consecutively from 49.4% on July 11-13, to 47.4% on July 25-27, 42.9% on August 8-10, and 38.9% in this latest survey. The rating has fallen 10.5 percentage points in just over a month.
The collapse below 40% has sparked alarm even within pro-government circles. Kim Eo-jun, a broadcaster with pro-government leanings, argued on his YouTube channel on August 17 that "no president in history has recovered after hitting the 30s," and that "40% approval rating is a psychological Maginot Line." At that time, the president's approval rating was still in the 40s, but this survey shows it has actually entered the 30s.
However, looking at historical approval rating trends for previous presidents, entering the 30s does not necessarily mean irreversible decline. Former President Lee Myung-bak recovered to the 40s after dropping to the 10s early in his term, and former President Park Geun-hye fell to the 30s in 2015 before rebounding above 40%. Former President Moon Jae-in also dropped to the 20s in a 2021 Gallup survey before rebounding to the 40s at the end of his term.
What stands out in this survey is that public sentiment departing from President Lee does not appear to be shifting to the People Power Party, the main opposition party.
In the same survey, the Democratic Party's support fell 2.5 percentage points from 46.4% to 43.9%. Meanwhile, the People Power Party remained unchanged at 37.3% compared to the previous survey.
The president dropped 4.0 percentage points, the Democratic Party fell 2.5 percentage points, and the People Power Party remained at ±0.0 percentage points.
While both the president and the ruling party saw approval ratings decline, the main opposition party failed to gain any symptomatic benefit. The People Power Party's support rose from 36.0% on July 25-27 to 37.3% on August 8-10, then remained at 37.3% in this survey.
This gap also appears among moderate voters. The moderate voters' evaluation of the president showed 42.9% positive and 55.1% negative, with negative evaluation 12.2 percentage points higher. However, in party support, the Democratic Party led at 46.8% versus the People Power Party at 28.7%, an 18.1 percentage point gap.
Moderate voters' negative assessment of the president is not translating into expanded support for the People Power Party.
However, the fact that not only the president but also Democratic Party support has declined in tandem is a burden for the ruling camp. Whether negative public opinion focused on the president spreads to the ruling party and whether the People Power Party can absorb the departing voters will likely determine future trends in public opinion.
This survey was commissioned by Straight News and conducted by Chowon C&I from August 22-24 on 2,001 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide using 100% mobile phone RDD ARS. The response rate was 3.8%, and the margin of error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Committee website.
전시언 기자 yourside@news-s.kr